Myanmar After the Election: Illusory Stability, Real War, and Thailand’s Strategic Dilemma
This article reframes prevailing analyses of Myanmar’s post-election trajectory through a political-security lens. It separates observable facts, structural dynamics, and policy implications, aiming to support informed strategic thinking rather than speculative prediction.
1. Elections as a Legitimacy Device, Not a Peace Mechanism
Myanmar’s phased elections, conducted amid widespread conflict and political exclusion, function primarily as a mechanism to repackage military rule rather than as a pathway toward peace or democratic transition. Major international reporting has described the process as lacking credibility, with limited participation, restricted competition, and heavy security oversight.123
2. Why Conflict Will Persist—and Likely Intensify
Contrary to optimistic diplomatic expectations, violence has continued throughout the election period, including airstrikes and ground clashes in contested regions.34 From a conflict-studies perspective, Myanmar exhibits the characteristics of a protracted civil war: multiple armed actors, fragmented authority, and no plausible path to decisive victory for any side.
3. War Finance and the Political Economy of Illicit Power
Sustained conflict requires sustained financing. In Myanmar’s case, reporting and policy analysis point to illicit economies—most notably cyber-scam centers, human trafficking networks, and cross-border crime—as key revenue sources for armed actors.56 These systems thrive in authoritarian environments, where enforcement is selective and loyalty can be purchased.
Implication for Thailand: Crackdowns driven by short-term political pressure tend to displace, not dismantle, illicit networks—pushing them deeper into border regions and increasing long-term security costs.
4. Thailand as a Convenient External Target
Military-nationalist narratives frequently rely on external adversaries to consolidate domestic legitimacy. Thailand’s geographic proximity, migrant flows, and historical ambiguities in border politics make it an accessible target for diplomatic pressure and rhetorical escalation.
This risk is not theoretical. Past incidents have included spillover violence, school closures on the Thai side, and air-delivered munitions landing near Thai territory.89
5. Proxy Dynamics and Great-Power Competition
The return of Cold War–style competition does not require direct military intervention. Instead, influence is exercised through arms transfers, diplomatic recognition, economic leverage, and tolerance—or suppression—of illicit economies. Myanmar increasingly occupies this gray zone, with China and Russia maintaining engagement while Western governments question electoral legitimacy.12
6. Thailand’s Policy Challenge: Integration, Not Reaction
Thailand’s vulnerability lies less in capacity than in fragmentation. Diplomacy, intelligence, law enforcement, and strategic communication must align around a coherent border strategy. Without integration, narrative control shifts to non-state actors and external powers, raising crisis-response costs.
- Border strategy integration: security, refugees, illicit finance, and local economies
- Financial disruption: targeting protection networks, not just visible operators
- Strategic communication: credible, data-driven public explanations
- Balanced diplomacy: maintaining autonomy amid major-power rivalry
Conclusion
Myanmar’s elections do not signal de-escalation; they coincide with continued warfare and repression. For Thailand, the strategic question is not whether instability will persist, but whether the state anticipates and shapes outcomes—or reacts after costs have accumulated. In an era where Cold War logic has returned in new forms, countries that fail to leverage structure and strategy risk becoming instruments of others.
References
- The Guardian (2025). Polls close in first phase of Myanmar elections widely condemned as a sham.
- Associated Press (2025). Myanmar holds first election since military seized power.
- Reuters (2025). Weak turnout seen in Myanmar’s phased election.
- Myanmar Now (2025). Airstrikes continue as junta presses ahead with election.
- Council on Foreign Relations (2024). How Myanmar Became a Global Center for Cyber Scams.
- The Guardian (2025). Growth of Myanmar scam centres.
- Al Jazeera (2025). Myanmar military raids online scam hub near Thai border.
- Khaosod English (2025). Clashes spill into Thailand, forcing school shutdowns.
- Bangkok Post (2025). Myanmar air force drops bombs near Thai border.
