I guided ChatGPT in analyzing the current situation in Las Vegas and prompted it to predict the future in 2035 of Las Vegas in light of the existing factors. Let's revisit this post in 2035.
++++++++++
Let's tap into a topic that’s gaining traction: how Las Vegas is evolving — seemingly shifting away from broad-based mass tourism toward a higher-spend, higher-margin visitor profile, and what that might mean for wealth-creation and alternative investment opportunities. I’ll break this into three parts:
-
What major figures in Las Vegas are publicly admitting about the visitor shifts and strategy
-
What potential “wealth‐making” or alternative business/investment paths are emerging (or being emphasized) in Las Vegas
-
Key caveats, risks, and what to watch out for if you’re considering getting involved
1. What’s happening: strategy & visitor trends in Las Vegas
Here are some of the clearer signals coming out of Las Vegas industry leadership:
Visitor drop and target shift
-
The Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority (LVCVA) data show a significant drop in visitation. For example: a 12% year‐over‐year drop in July 2025. CBS News+3https://www.fox5vegas.com+3Las Vegas Sun+3
-
According to an article quoting LVCVA CEO Steve Hill:
“Where the ~7% drop in visitation is at the lower end of the financial spectrum. The properties that target that are probably going to start responding…” CDC Gaming+1
-
The top‐tier (higher end) of the market is reported to be doing well: “We are not seeing any problem at the top of the market … it’s probably the top third.” Las Vegas Business Press+1
-
Hill also noted that average daily rates (ADR) are up significantly compared to 2019 levels. CDC Gaming+1
-
The narrative that Vegas is “too expensive” and thus losing business is being pushed back by officials:
“Vegas is not too expensive … Vegas is still a value, and there are great values out there right now.” – Steve Hill https://www.fox5vegas.com+1
What this strategy implies
-
The city & resort operators appear to be shifting focus toward visitors who spend more (rooms, gaming, premium experiences) rather than relying on large volumes of lower‐spend travelers.
-
They’re accepting a drop in sheer visitor count (or at least acknowledging it) in favour of higher margin per visitor. For example: Even with fewer visitors, gaming revenue on the Strip is up in some reporting. Hoodline+1
-
Real estate & resort development are facing higher costs: one piece said “it’s going to be $2 million a key to be competitive in Las Vegas” for a resort room. CDC Gaming
Why this matters
-
If low and middle tier travelers are being “priced out” (or de-emphasized) then the ecosystem of businesses relying on volume tourism (budget hotels, low-stakes gaming, mass market comps) may be under pressure.
-
On the flip side, luxury, premium experiences, sports/entertainment asset plays could be emphasized. For example: Las Vegas is doubling down on sports tourism (stadia, marquee events). Las Vegas Business Press+1
-
This creates forks in opportunity: those aligned with the premium/high end may benefit; others may face headwinds.
2. Alternative “wealth-making” or business/investment paths in Las Vegas
Given the shift in strategy, here are possible avenues to explore in Las Vegas — either for entrepreneurial activity, investment, or positioning.
a) Premium hospitality & “luxury experience” segments
-
High‐end resorts, VIP gaming, luxury hotel rooms, premium F&B (fine dining), entertainment targeted at affluent clientele.
-
The logic: as the “top third” of market remains strong and the lower end is dropping, investing in or operating in the upper end might offer better margins.
-
Example: New resort room builds targeting high-end may cost $2 m+ per room key as noted above. (Heavy investment but with potential for higher return). CDC Gaming+1
-
Wealth‐making angle: If you can capture the “premium visitor” flow (via owning/running a boutique high‐end hotel, F&B concept, luxury experiential business), you may benefit from this strategy.
b) Sports / large-event infrastructure & ancillary services
-
Las Vegas is leaning more into sports tourism: stadiums, big events, conferences, etc. Las Vegas Business Press+1
-
Wealth opportunity: Think about services that support large events: hospitality suites, premium parking/transport services, branded merchandise, accessing VIP attendees. Also real estate or development around event venues.
-
Example: If you could develop or provide a niche service (luxury shuttle, concierge tours for sports fans, event hospitality) aligned with major sports happenings in Las Vegas, you’re aligning with the premium push.
c) Real‐estate / residential / mixed use adjacent to luxury tourism
-
As resort/hospitality upgrades happen, there’s associated demand for high‐end residential, mixed‐use development, branded residences. Las Vegas has been positioning itself as more than just “gambling city”.
-
Investing in land/real‐estate near new resorts, near major event venues, or luxury rental properties might be a path.
-
Also: ancillary businesses (luxury retail, high-end service providers) that cater to affluent visitors/residents.
d) Innovation / experiential business models
-
Given that volume is dropping but per-visitor spending is up / stable, experiential business models that deliver premium “memory economy” value might thrive: e.g., immersive entertainment, high‐stakes gaming experiences, luxury wellness resorts, curated travel packages.
-
Partnering with resorts to offer “luxury add‐ons” or bespoke experiences may have higher margins.
e) Contrarian / value segment investment
-
While much is being said about premium targeting, there may be opportunities in the undervalued segments: budget hospitality, off-Strip lodging, or alternative accommodation (short‐term rentals) for visitors who are “priced out” of the Strip mainstream but still want Vegas experience.
-
If the mainstream shifts premium, the disruptor might target the underserved “value” market, positioning for budget travellers or niche segments (e.g., digital nomads, younger travellers, non-gambling tourism).
-
But this is riskier, because the city seems deemphasising that segment: you’ll likely face competitive pressure, margin compression, or property owners repositioning.
3. Key caveats & what to watch for
-
Risk of “squeezing the middle/volume”: If the lower‐end visitors drop too fast, the city’s ecosystem (retail, budget hotels, transportation, service workers) may suffer, and that can ripple.
-
Interest rates & capital costs: The mention of “$2 m per room key” implies very high capital expenditure. With higher interest rates & construction costs, some developments may not “pencil”. CDC Gaming
-
Competition & external pressures: Other destinations and online gaming/gaming at home are competition. While Vegas sees itself as “pinnacle”, external forces matter. CDC Gaming
-
Narrative vs reality: While officials push back on “Vegas is too expensive” headlines, many travellers feel it is. The perception matters. https://www.fox5vegas.com+1
-
Social & community impact: Shifting hospitality models may affect local jobs, average wage levels, displacement of service workers, etc. If you’re investing with community awareness, this matters.
-
Timing matters: Many quotes suggest declines now but optimism for fall/winter 2025 and 2026 for rebound. CDC Gaming+1
-
Regulatory / destination limitations: Large resorts, gaming regulation, city infrastructure — all add complexity.
Here are ten notable quotes from key CEOs and executives connected to Las Vegas hospitality/gaming, with commentary about what they suggest for strategy, market shifts, and potential wealth-making opportunities:
-
Bill Hornbuckle (CEO & President of MGM Resorts International)
“As I look to the future, I think about, literally, the next 16 months are going to be the best convention months this city has ever had or ever seen. … We remain bullish on Las Vegas. Fundamentally, I don’t think it’s broken in any way, shape or form.” Covers.com+4Yogonet+4Las Vegas Review-Journal+4
Interpretation: Hornbuckle is stressing that large-scale conventions and group business are viewed as the engine of recovery and growth. For investors/entrepreneurs, this signals opportunity in group/hospitality services tailored to conventions (transport, VIP experiences, ancillary services). -
Bill Hornbuckle:
“I read a headline the other day that Las Vegas is dead … No, Las Vegas isn’t dead. We ran 98 % this weekend. Full stop. We’re far from dead. (The drop off) is at the lower end, the value-oriented folks … We’re putting on a push, because we let the narrative get away from us in the context of value.” CDC Gaming
Interpretation: Here is an explicit acknowledgement of a shift: the “lower end” (value travelers) are showing the drop-off, while the higher end remains stronger. This aligns with your noted premise that Vegas may be focusing more on high spenders. -
Bill Hornbuckle:
“It’s just the nature of the beast.” Las Vegas Review-Journal
Interpretation: A terse comment but meaningful: despite a drop in visitation, he frames it as cyclical rather than terminal. This suggests strategic thinking around investing now for future recovery rather than panic. -
Tom Reeg (CEO of Caesars Entertainment)
“Vegas started leaking as a market (at the) end of May. That leak accelerated into June.” Las Vegas Review-Journal+1
Interpretation: Reeg is more candid about the downturn—he identifies the timing of the worsening and signals awareness of the weakening visitor count. For someone looking for business/investment, this may indicate that segments tied to volume (budget travel, mass gambling) are under pressure. -
Tom Reeg:
“But make no mistake, the summer is soft in Vegas.” The Motley Fool+2Facebook+2
Interpretation: A further acknowledgement of softness in visitor/travel business. For alternative wealth-making, you might look at contrarian opportunities (buying when peers are cautious) or services catering to segments less affected by the drop (luxury, high-spend). -
Tom Reeg:
“I’ve been around Vegas a very long time… (and) this is normal seasonality that we haven’t seen in a while here. It’s nothing that leaves me concerned.” Las Vegas Review-Journal+1
Interpretation: Reeg is positioning the slowdown as temporary and part of the larger cycle. For investors/entrepreneurs, a key takeaway: timing matters; being prepared for recovery might be essential. -
Bill Hornbuckle:
“History gives us confidence.” Las Vegas Review-Journal
Interpretation: Again reinforcing the view that Las Vegas has overcome downturns before and will do so again. Suggests longer-term horizon rather than short-term panic. -
Bill Hornbuckle:
“We’re going back through our pricing on things people touch every day that matter. … You can check in to New York-New York or Excalibur for $85, including resort fee. You can get a $5 beer and bet on a $5 table. … We’ve looked at the marketplace and we’re going to make a difference where it helps.” CDC Gaming
Interpretation: Interesting because this implies that despite the premium shift, some value tiers or specific properties are still being managed to retain volume/affordability. For business opportunity: maybe niche value-oriented segments still exist. -
Bill Hornbuckle:
“No matter what happens in Las Vegas, it will deleverage that (part) of the portfolio. To us, it’s about continued growth and diversification.” CDC Gaming
Interpretation: Diversification beyond Las Vegas is highlighted (international, digital, regional). If you’re thinking wealth creation, you might consider opportunities mirrored in Las Vegas in other markets, or digital/gaming adjacent businesses. -
Bill Hornbuckle:
“It’s kind of fascinating what the … administration … continues to do, is we’ll take two steps forward (and then take one step back). … I think the approach to the message we (give off), whether it’s in Las Vegas or the community at large, has to be welcoming.” Yogonet
Interpretation: A recognition of how regulatory / policy / macro issues affect tourism/hospitality. For alternative wealth making, it suggests that non-property, non-gaming businesses (travel, hospitality, event services) may benefit from regulatory tailwinds or avoid headwinds.
Summary & Implications
From the quotes we see a consistent story:
-
The major operators recognize visitor volume declines, especially in the lower-spend/mass market segment.
-
They emphasize the premium, luxury, high-margin visitor segment, conventions/groups, and diversification.
-
They both downplay doomsday narratives and emphasize that Las Vegas is “not broken”, but rather undergoing a cyclical shift.
-
They signal strategic pricing adjustments and emphasize value where needed, but the core focus appears to shift toward high margin.
How this relates to wealth-making / alternative opportunity strategies
-
Premium hospitality/investment: Given that luxury/high-spend visitors remain stronger, properties, services or businesses catering to affluent visitors may offer more attractive margins.
-
Convention/Group services: As Hornbuckle emphasized the next 16 months of conventions, ancillary services (hospitality, transport, VIP experiences) tied to large groups may be a strong avenue.
-
Digital/diversification/gaming adjacency: Since future growth is seen in digital, regional, and international arms, opportunities in these space may mirror or complement Las Vegas dynamics.
-
Value/down-market contrarian niche: Because the “value” segment is being squeezed (or is soft), there might be room for disruptive or alternative lodging/experience models that target underserved segments.
-
Policy/regulatory awareness: Some of the commentary suggests that regulatory or macro-travel trends matter — so being aligned with policy or regulatory advantages (e.g., international visitors, tax incentives) could be valuable.
Here’s my 2035 verdict, drawn from the economic signals, CEO language, infrastructure projects, and demographic trends up to 2025.
🔮 Verdict: Las Vegas 2035 — The Dual City
By 2035, Las Vegas will almost certainly have evolved into a two-tier ecosystem:
a polished “hyper-luxury experience zone” engineered for global elites and big-ticket events, and a sprawling, tech-integrated service belt surrounding it, where affordability and access are tightly rationed.
1. The Strip: From Playground to Portfolio Asset
Trendline: Corporate consolidation + financialization
-
By 2035, the Strip will be dominated by institutional ownership — REITs, sovereign funds, and conglomerates like MGM and Blackstone controlling nearly all high-value real estate.
-
Resorts will act less like hotels and more like financial instruments: modular assets managed for yield through dynamic pricing, AI-driven guest targeting, and tokenized membership systems.
-
Cash will be rare; spending and gaming will merge into a unified digital wallet ecosystem, blending entertainment, investment, and social scoring.
Outcome: Vegas as a “controlled financial organism,” maximizing revenue per square foot, not joy per visitor.
2. The Middle-Class Exodus
Trendline: Price walls & cultural shift
-
The “average traveler” who once built Vegas — the $100-a-day gambler, the spontaneous road-tripper — will largely vanish from the core Strip economy.
-
Those visitors will be redirected toward secondary zones: Henderson, North Las Vegas, Primm, Laughlin, and digital/VR casinos owned by the same corporations.
-
Local businesses dependent on value-seeking tourists will either close or move off-Strip, turning the periphery into a “shadow Vegas” — cheaper, grittier, nostalgic.
Outcome: The emotional soul of “Old Vegas” survives only in nostalgia districts or online retro-themed casinos.
3. The Rise of the Experience Economy
Trendline: From gambling to immersive consumption
-
Slot machines and blackjack will no longer be the core; instead, Vegas will monetize presence. AI-powered immersive theaters, data-driven concert pricing, and reality-fusion attractions (think virtual Sahara meets real Bellagio) will dominate.
-
Sports will anchor the city — with year-round mega-events (NFL, F1, NBA, eSports), and each arena becoming its own micro-Vegas, blending gaming, music, retail, and data mining.
Outcome: Vegas will brand itself as “the Capital of Experience” — where time, identity, and data are commodities.
4. Locals’ Dilemma: Service Class or Exit Class
Trendline: Automation + income bifurcation
-
Service jobs will shrink as hotels deploy robotics and AI concierges.
-
Many locals will shift into logistics, security, tech maintenance, and tourism-adjacent remote work.
-
A “service aristocracy” may emerge — highly trained hosts for ultra-wealthy clients — while the broader workforce faces rent inflation and limited upward mobility.
Outcome: A mirror of San Francisco’s inequality — dazzling wealth surrounded by quiet exhaustion.
5. Environmental and Urban Pressures
Trendline: Water, climate, and diversification
-
Lake Mead and Colorado River issues will push Vegas toward aggressive water tech investment — desalination, recycling, and imports.
-
Sustainability will become a brand necessity: net-zero resorts, solar canopies, and energy-positive mega-buildings.
-
Vegas will also evolve into a testing ground for smart-city governance — IoT-driven traffic, AI policing, predictive resource management.
Outcome: “The desert that learns” — a model for post-scarcity entertainment cities.
6. Geopolitical & Financial Context
Trendline: Hedge-fund urbanism
-
Foreign capital, especially from Gulf and Asian funds, will increasingly own Strip assets. Vegas may serve as the neutral global party zone — politically stable, tax-friendly, and entertainment-sovereign.
-
Economic diversification into esports, digital gambling, and AI-entertainment exports will make Vegas less dependent on physical visitors.
Outcome: Las Vegas as the Dubai of the Western Hemisphere, selling spectacle, security, and exclusivity.
🌆 Final Scenario Summary (2035)
| Dimension | Likely 2035 Reality | Losers | Winners |
|---|---|---|---|
| Visitorship | 35–38 million / year (down from 41 m pre-pandemic) but 2–3× higher per-capita spend | Budget tourists | Ultra-rich travelers, event organizers |
| Gaming vs Non-Gaming | 65 % revenue from non-gaming (entertainment, sports, dining, data monetization) | Traditional casinos | Experiential platforms, data firms |
| Local Economy | Higher wages in niche tech/service roles but rising cost of living | Service workers | Skilled hospitality techs, investors |
| Environment | Green infrastructure citywide | Unsustainable operators | Clean-tech firms, water-tech ventures |
| Ownership | 70 % institutional | Small hotel owners | REITs, investment funds |
| Culture | “Curated luxury” replaces “open fun” | Middle-class nostalgia | Global elite lifestyle brands |
⚖️ My Verdict
Vegas 2035 will be richer, smarter, cleaner — but emotionally hollow.
It will glitter like a digital cathedral built on the bones of Old Vegas, where the poor once dreamed big.
Those seeking wealth can still win — but not through luck at a table.
The real jackpots will belong to those who own the algorithms, the data, and the air-conditioned futures of the desert.
Let’s say this: I’m not gambling, but I’m also not a prophet of profits — I’d put my confidence level around 80–85% for the broad structural trends (luxury focus, institutional ownership, data-driven tourism, environmental tech integration). Those are already visible and supported by financial, demographic, and policy signals.
Where the uncertainty lies — the other 15–20% — is in:
-
Global shocks: wars, recessions, AI disruptions, or U.S. policy shifts that could reroute investment or tourism.
-
Public backlash cycles: if enough “priced-out” Americans rebel culturally or politically, Vegas might re-embrace its populist soul to recover volume.
-
Tech adoption pace: whether digital wallets, VR casinos, and AI governance truly integrate as smoothly as projected.
