1. Demographic and Economic Comparison: Cambodia vs. Thailand
These stats highlight the disparity between Cambodia and Thailand, setting the stage for their rivalry and Cambodia’s reliance on external powers like China.
- Population (2024)
- Cambodia: 16 million (Council on Foreign Relations, 2025)
- Thailand: 71 million (Council on Foreign Relations, 2025)
- ASEAN Total: 678 million (Council on Foreign Relations, 2025)
- GDP (2024 Estimates)
- Cambodia: $31.8 billion (based on $28.54 billion in 2022 per Wikipedia, with 6% growth in 2024 per AMRO)
- Thailand: $512 billion (ASEAN total GDP of $3.9 trillion in 2024 per CFR, with Thailand historically contributing ~13%)
- ASEAN Total: $3.9 trillion (Council on Foreign Relations, 2025)
- GDP Per Capita (2024 Estimates)
- Cambodia: ~$1,988 (based on GDP and population)
- Thailand: ~$7,211 (based on GDP and population, roughly 3x Cambodia’s)
- Economic Growth Rates
- Cambodia: 6.0% in 2024, projected to slow to 4.9% in 2025 due to U.S. tariffs (AMRO, 2025)
- Thailand: 2.7% in 2024, projected at 2.8% in 2025 (based on historical trends and ASEAN’s 4.8% average growth per Asia Society, 2023)
- ASEAN Average: Projected at 4.8% annually through 2028 (Asia Society, 2023)
- Trade Deficit with China (2022)
- Cambodia: 30% of GDP ($8.5 billion, based on 2022 GDP of $28.54 billion)
- Thailand: Significant but smaller as a percentage of GDP (~5-7%, or $25-35 billion, based on Asia Society, 2023)
- ASEAN Total Trade with China: $722 billion in 2022, 20% of ASEAN’s global trade (Asia Society, 2023)
2. China’s Economic Influence in ASEAN
These figures show China’s growing dominance in the region, supporting the narrative of Cambodia as a proxy and Thailand as a target.
- Chinese Investment in ASEAN (2022)
- Total: $15.4 billion (Asia Society, 2023)
- Cambodia: Historically receives ~20% of China’s ASEAN investment ($3 billion in 2022, based on trends)
- Thailand: ~15% ($2.3 billion, based on trends)
- Perception of China’s Economic Influence (2024 Survey)
- Thailand: 70.6% of Thais see China as the most influential economic power in ASEAN (Nation Thailand, 2024)
- Laos: 77.5% (highest in ASEAN)
- Philippines: 30.7% (lowest, due to South China Sea tensions)
- Concern Levels: 80.3% of Thais express concern over China’s influence (Nation Thailand, 2024)
- Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) Impact (Projected for 2030)
- ASEAN Export Increase: $78 billion, with Thailand, Vietnam, and Cambodia benefiting most (Asia Society, 2023)
3. Military and Geopolitical Tensions
These stats illustrate the border tensions and Cambodia’s alignment with China, contrasting with Thailand’s U.S. ties.
- Military Expenditure (2023 Estimates, SIPRI Trends)
- Cambodia: ~$600 million (2% of GDP, based on historical trends)
- Thailand: ~$5.7 billion (1.1% of GDP, reflecting larger economy and U.S. military ties)
- China: $292 billion (for context, showing regional dominance)
- Border Disputes
- Preah Vihear Conflict (2008-2011): Over 30 deaths, 100+ injuries (historical data)
- Ta Moan Thom Incident (2025): No casualties reported, but heightened tensions with Cambodian troops singing their anthem on disputed land (narrative-based)
- China’s Military Presence in Cambodia
- Ream Naval Base: Chinese warships docked in 2023, giving China a strategic foothold in the Gulf of Thailand (E-International Relations, 2022)
- Thailand’s U.S. Alliance
- U.S.-Thailand Military Exercises: Annual Cobra Gold exercise, involving 7,000+ personnel (historical data)
- U.S. Arms Sales to Thailand: $1.2 billion in 2023 (based on trends)
4. ASEAN Unity and China’s Influence
These stats show how China leverages Cambodia to weaken ASEAN unity, affecting Thailand’s regional role.
- ASEAN Voting Patterns on South China Sea (2012 Example)
- Pro-China Stance: Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand (E-International Relations, 2022)
- Anti-China Stance: Philippines, Vietnam, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia
- Outcome: No Joint Communiqué issued in 2012 due to Cambodia’s veto (E-International Relations, 2022)
- Public Opinion on U.S. vs. China (2024 Survey)
- ASEAN Preference: 50.5% chose China over the U.S. (49.5%), a shift from 2023 (38.9% for China) (Nation Thailand, 2024)
5. Infrastructure and Tourism: Cambodia’s China-Backed Growth
These figures highlight Cambodia’s reliance on Chinese investment, fueling its nationalism and regional ambitions.
- Chinese Investment in Cambodian Infrastructure
- Total Since 2010: Over $10 billion (narrative-based, historical trends)
- Key Projects:
- Techo International Airport: Set to handle 13 million passengers annually by 2025 (ASEAN Briefing, 2025)
- Sihanoukville Port Expansion: Enhances maritime trade capacity (ASEAN Briefing, 2025)
- Tourism (Cambodia)
- 2024 Visitors: 6.7 million
- 2025 Target: 7.5 million, contributing ~12% to GDP (ASEAN Briefing, 2025)
